Africa X Sauvage Vol 3 =LINK=

Africa X Sauvage Vol 3

this paper provides a baseline for the calibration and evaluation of ensemble multi-scale coupled cloud and weather forecast system ( ems-coupled or ems) for the african monsoon. ems-coupled is a hybrid multiphase global climate forecasting system that couples the ensemble multi-scale models ( emms) with the ensemble multi-scale coupled weather and cloud model ( ems-coupled) (pintaud et al. 2014). we present a detailed evaluation of the performance of the ems-coupled system using the first year of daily outputs, december 2011. the ems-coupled system is a hybrid global forecast system that combines a weather model with a cloud model, and it is coupled to the global ensemble prediction system ( ges) of the ensemble multi-scale models ( emms). the emm ensemble is a set of global climate models that use the same subset of initial conditions, but differ in their initial conditions (i.e., spatial and temporal resolutions). the ems-coupled system is developed using the high performance computing facilities available at the laboratoire d’informatique du commissariat à l’energie atomique (licae, cea). the forecast, data assimilation and calibration methods are described in this paper.

the operational arc2 has been developed to provide a means of spatially and temporally integrating precipitation data over large regions in support of climate analysis and impact studies. the grid resolution of the arc2 is 0.1 by 0.1 degrees, which encompasses the entire african continent. the spatial resolution of the arc2 is at the same level as that of other operational global gridded rainfall data sets, such as the global precipitation climatology project (gpcp) and the international satellite rainfall estimate (isare) (van asselt et al. 2003). for validation purposes, the model is compared to rainfall data collected from a network of global meteorological stations over africa. in addition, a sensitivity analysis is conducted to assess the impact of the spatial resolution on the validity of the arc2.

the newly established and improved climate dataset offers a unique opportunity to analyze rainfall and water year variability in africa. the availability of the dataset facilitates the investigation of the relationship between climate and vegetation, agricultural production, and water management. because the validation, intercomparison, and production of the arc2 data are completed, there is no need for users to perform cumbersome quality control on the data. this makes it convenient to focus on the analysis of the dataset and not the quality control of the data.
in addition to validation, intercomparison, and production of the data, a final aspect of the project was the provision of the data to the public through a web-based application. this application, known as sauvage, will allow users to calculate, display, and download the data. it also provides users with advanced graphing and analysis capabilities. the user will be able to view a week-by-week time series of daily rainfall. in addition, the user will be able to view and download the daily climate data from various regions of africa.
the analysis of the monthly averaged gts and ncep/ncar t125 data during the year 2005 showed that rainfall in much of africa during the study period was significantly drier than average. during the djf 2005, only mauritania (0.0091 mm/day), sudan (0.0061 mm/day), and chad (0.0048 mm/day) had monthly rainfall that was greater than average ( fig. 14 ). the average total rainfall of the three countries during the djf 2005 was 0.0324 mm/day. in november 2005, the arid northwest namibia, northern angola, and the western and southern part of botswana had rainfall that was greater than average ( fig. 15 ). in 2005, the total rainfall for these three countries was 0.0367 mm/day, while the average rainfall for the southern african region was 0.0503 mm/day. in march 2005, the drier-than-average areas were concentrated in much of the northern part of east africa, west of the rift valley, and along the red sea, and the southwestern portion of the arabian peninsula ( fig. 16 ). the total rainfall of these three regions during the march 2005 was 0.0955 mm/day, while the total average rainfall during the month was 0.1571 mm/day.
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